Home/ Work/ W·02 PawCart engagement model
Case study · W/02 · Simulated engagement · Methodology real

Mapped £280K of recoverable revenue across three attribution failure points.

A five-week scope for a fictional pet-food DTC brand on Shopify, modelled on the kind of engagement I ship for real clients. The numbers are stylised; the frameworks, the SQL, and the sequence of findings are exactly how it runs in production.

Weekly signal recovered · cumulative £5-WEEK SCOPE
PawCart £280K recoverable revenue mapped
Client
PawCart (simulated)
Scope
Data audit → model
Duration
5 weeks
Revenue mapped
£280K
⚑ Simulated engagement — methodology reflects real practice PawCart is a composite. The brand name, the specific numbers and the dashboard screenshots are illustrative. The diagnostic framework, SQL patterns, reconciliation approach and delivery cadence are identical to engagements I run with real clients. Real client work is confidential by default; a simulated case study lets me show the method end-to-end without breaching that.

Every DTC brand doing £1M+ has some version of the same problem: three tools, three numbers, and a founder who's stopped trusting any of them. PawCart — a Shopify-based pet-food brand — came in with exactly that. Five weeks later they had one number, a roadmap, and £280K of previously-invisible revenue pinned to specific fixes.

The setup

PawCart does £3.2M run-rate on Shopify. Spends ~£35K/month on Meta and Google. Two-person marketing team, one fractional CFO, founder CEO. Six months ago they hired a growth agency who "improved ROAS by 40%" — which the founder has never believed, because the Shopify P&L didn't move.

That gap — between what the ads dashboard says and what the bank account says — is where every engagement I run starts.

Week 1 — reconciliation

Before looking for leaks, I build a three-way reconciliation: Shopify orders, GA4 purchase events, Meta conversions. Same window, same revenue definition, same attribution model. Every engagement reveals the gap; the interesting part is where the gap is.

Three-way reconciliation Shopify GA4 Meta
SourceRevenue (30d)vs. ShopifyDiagnosis
Shopify (truth)£264,100Baseline
GA4 purchase£241,800-8.4%Consent-mode signal loss + ad blockers
Meta Ads Manager£318,400+20.6%Double-count + view-through inflation

Meta is claiming £54K of revenue that Shopify doesn't have a matching order for. That's the agency's "40% ROAS improvement" in one table.

The three leaks

Leak · 01 · Attribution

Meta pixel double-counts on purchase refresh

Purchase event fires on /thank-you page load. A meaningful share of customers refresh to save the page, which fires the pixel again. Meta has no dedupe key set up server-side. Result: ~12% inflation on top of view-through — enough to make the worst-performing campaigns look break-even.

Fix: CAPI with event_id dedupe, plus server-side purchase confirmation from Shopify webhook.

£104K
Mis-allocated budget · annualised
Leak · 02 · Abandoned cart

Post-add-to-cart flow has three unfired triggers

Klaviyo flow fires on Added to Cart, but three specific conditions silently skip it: customer not logged in, checkout initiated in-app, and discount-code flows. Combined, about 34% of abandoned carts never received the recovery email. Standard industry recovery rate on this segment is 8–12%.

Fix: Shopify checkouts/create webhook → server-side Klaviyo track. Two-day build, one-day QA.

£118K
Recovered revenue · annualised
Leak · 03 · Review signal

Product reviews not syndicated to Google Shopping

900+ product reviews collected in Okendo. Aggregate rating is shown on product pages but not exposed via AggregateRating schema. Google Shopping therefore shows no seller rating — competitors in pet-food category all show stars. Baseline CTR lift from stars in PLAs is ~17% on comparable categories.

Fix: Okendo already has a Google integration turned off by default. Flip it. Two hours.

£58K
Signal lift · annualised

Delivery cadence

Week 1
Stakeholder interviews. Warehouse access. Three-way reconciliation.
Week 2
Attribution teardown. Meta pixel + GA4 audit. Findings draft.
Week 3
Findings delivered. Priorities confirmed with founder + CFO.
Week 4
Build: CAPI dedupe + Klaviyo webhook + Okendo Google sync.
Week 5
Reconciliation dashboard live. Handover doc. 30-day support.

The one-page dashboard

Every engagement ends with one page the operator actually checks. Not twelve dashboards, not a monster deck — one page, weekly. For PawCart it had six tiles: revenue (Shopify truth), GA4 vs. Shopify delta, CAC by channel, 30-day LTV, abandoned-cart recovery %, and review-signal CTR.

"Don't trust a dashboard you couldn't explain to your mum in 90 seconds." — what I tell every new client on kickoff.

What the numbers mean

£280K of recoverable revenue is the signal, not the guaranteed lift. The three fixes above usually capture 50–70% of that over six months, with the rest decaying into noise as customer behaviour adapts. A responsible consultant writes it as a range, not a promise. Any consultant who'll stand behind a single number on five weeks of data is selling you something.

£
Engagement fee · for referenceFive-week fixed-scope engagement like this prices at £6,000–£8,500 depending on warehouse readiness, with an optional £1,000/mo retainer for the first three months post-handover. That retainer catches about 80% of the regressions I see in the 60-day window after delivery.
Written by · March 2026
Jimmy Okoth
Independent data consultant · actuary · EMEA

Your £280K is in there somewhere too.

Book a 30-min call